The consultant Fitch Solutions considers that oil production in Angola will fall by 20% by 2031 due to the maturation of oil wells and the chronic lack of investment in new discoveries.
“The main reason for the mediocre growth in oil production is the legacy effect of the maturation of oil wells”, says Fitch Solutions in a commentary note on maintaining production below the limit set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) .
“The drop in production from Angola’s current wells means that a higher rate of production growth is needed to maintain production at current levels; Angola needs around 36,000 more barrels per day of production to offset the impact of the natural decline” , say analysts at this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.
In the comment, sent to customers and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions writes that “Angola has witnessed a small increase in production levels, with the start-up of several small projects, but this quarter we foresee that the small increase of stagnant production, returning to negative growth in 2023, with the effect of the decline of wells materializing”.
Angola’s production has been around 1.1 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, well below the limit of around 1.5 million barrels per day imposed by OPEC.
“The new limit for Angola under total OPEC production is far above production capacities and past growth rates indicate that there is a very low probability of Angola approaching OPEC limits in the short term”, conclude the analysts.